CGY
5–3
COL
Final · W
Calgary Flames
CGY · 1-0-0
5–3
FinalW
Colorado Avalanche
COL · 1-1-0
1ST2ND3RDT
CGY
1142825527
COL
13010212325
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Flames lead the season series 1–0
CGY 1-0-0 · COL 1-1-0 · First meeting this season — the Flames lead the season series 1–0
Flames beat the Avalanche
Chances were even (3.0 to 2.8 expected goals); the Flames won 5–3. Pavel Francouz allowed 2.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 3.0 expected goals to 2.8, on 27 and 25 shots on goal.
CGY 3.0 xG · 27 shots
COL 2.8 xG · 25 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
1.4 · 0.5
2nd
1.0 · 1.1
3rd
0.6 · 1.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Bowen Byram · 1st 01:39 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
2
Brett Ritchie · 1st 11:23 · 1–1 · snap shot, a good chance (23%)
3
Dillon Dube · 2nd 02:31 · 2–1 · snap shot, a good chance (16%)
4
Rasmus Andersson · 2nd 14:52 · 3–1 · slap shot off the rush, a great chance (33%)
5
Tyler Toffoli · 3rd 01:12 · 4–1 · deflected shot, a good chance (21%)
6
Elias Lindholm · 3rd 02:47 · 5–1 · snap shot, a great chance (25%)
7
Nathan MacKinnon · 3rd 03:08 · 5–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
8
Valeri Nichushkin · 3rd 11:01 · 5–3 · tip in shot, a good chance (18%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Flames win 53.
CGY 53%COL 47%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 0 penalties← Flames shoot this way
Avalanche shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Bowen Byram · 1st 01:39 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
2
Brett Ritchie · 1st 11:23 · 1–1
Snap shot, a good chance (23%)
3
Dillon Dube · 2nd 02:31 · SH · 2–1
Snap shot, a good chance (16%)
4
Rasmus Andersson · 2nd 14:52 · 3–1
Slap shot off the rush, a great chance (33%)
5
Tyler Toffoli · 3rd 01:12 · PP · GWG · 4–1
Deflected shot, a good chance (21%)
6
Elias Lindholm · 3rd 02:47 · PP · 5–1
Snap shot, a great chance (25%)
7
Nathan MacKinnon · 3rd 03:08 · 5–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
8
Valeri Nichushkin · 3rd 11:01 · PP · 5–3
Tip in shot, a good chance (18%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
22/25 saves · 3 GA · 2.8 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
22/27 saves · 5 GA · 3.0 xGA
Allowed 2.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
