CGY
3–2
CAR
Final / OT · W
Calgary Flames
CGY · 4-1-0
3–2
Final / OTW
Carolina Hurricanes
CAR · 3-1-1
1ST2ND3RDOTT
CGY
161140814332
CAR
2120201201227
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Flames lead the season series 1–0
CGY 4-1-0 · CAR 3-1-1 · First meeting this season — the Flames lead the season series 1–0
Flames beat the Hurricanes
Down 0–2 in the 1st period, the Flames erased the deficit with three unanswered goals — Ritchie's equalizer — and won it in overtime on Toffoli's goal. Jacob Markstrom stopped 1.1 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Hurricanes created the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 2.5, on 27 and 32 shots on goal.
CGY 2.5 xG · 32 shots
CAR 3.1 xG · 27 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
0.5 · 1.5
2nd
0.7 · 0.1
3rd
0.4 · 1.3
OT
0.9 · 0.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Sebastian Aho · 1st 01:44 · 0–1 · backhand shot, a great chance (31%)
2
Calvin de Haan · 1st 10:28 · 0–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
3
Nazem Kadri · 1st 13:31 · 1–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (18%)
4
Brett Ritchie · 2nd 02:31 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
5
Tyler Toffoli · OT 04:30 · 3–2 · snap shot, a good chance (21%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Flames win 40.
CGY 40%CAR 60%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Flames shoot this way
Hurricanes shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Sebastian Aho · 1st 01:44 · 0–1
Backhand shot, a great chance (31%)
2
Calvin de Haan · 1st 10:28 · 0–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
3
Nazem Kadri · 1st 13:31 · PP · 1–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (18%)
4
Brett Ritchie · 2nd 02:31 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
5
Tyler Toffoli · OT 04:30 · GWG · 3–2
Snap shot, a good chance (21%)
1st period
2
Paul Stastny, Stefan Noesen · wrist shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
0–2
2nd period
3rd period
No goals or penalties.
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
25/27 saves · 2 GA · 3.1 xGA
Stopped 1.1 more goals than an average goalie would have.
29/32 saves · 3 GA · 2.5 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
