CGY
6–3
TBL
Final · W
Calgary Flames
CGY · 22-16-9
6–3
FinalW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 29-15-1
1ST2ND3RDT
CGY
115216310641
TBL
04210110324
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
CGY 22-16-9 · TBL 29-15-1 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Flames beat the Lightning
Chances were even (4.1 to 3.7 expected goals); the Flames won 6–3. The Flames owned the 1st period, 2.1 to 0.5 in expected goals.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 4.1 expected goals to 3.7, on 41 and 24 shots on goal.
CGY 4.1 xG · 41 shots
TBL 3.7 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st · the swing
2.1 · 0.5
2nd
1.3 · 1.4
3rd
0.7 · 1.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Nazem Kadri · 1st 17:58 · 1–0 · tip in shot, a good chance (10%)
2
Steven Stamkos · 2nd 10:20 · 1–1 · snap shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Vladislav Namestnikov · 2nd 11:08 · 1–2 · deflected shot, a good chance (11%)
4
Tyler Toffoli · 2nd 12:18 · 2–2 · wrap around shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
5
Rasmus Andersson · 2nd 17:20 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
6
Dillon Dube · 3rd 07:40 · 4–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
7
Anthony Cirelli · 3rd 15:58 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a great chance (42%)
8
Jonathan Huberdeau · 3rd 17:44 · 5–3 · wrist shot, into an empty net
9
Blake Coleman · 3rd 19:13 · 6–3 · snap shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Flames win 56.
CGY 56%TBL 44%
Goals and penalties
9 goals · 0 penalties← Flames shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Nazem Kadri · 1st 17:58 · PP · 1–0
Tip in shot, a good chance (10%)
2
Steven Stamkos · 2nd 10:20 · 1–1
Snap shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Vladislav Namestnikov · 2nd 11:08 · 1–2
Deflected shot, a good chance (11%)
4
Tyler Toffoli · 2nd 12:18 · 2–2
Wrap around shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
5
Rasmus Andersson · 2nd 17:20 · 3–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
6
Dillon Dube · 3rd 07:40 · GWG · 4–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
7
Anthony Cirelli · 3rd 15:58 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 4–3
Wrist shot, a great chance (42%)
8
Jonathan Huberdeau · 3rd 17:44 · EN · 5–3
Wrist shot, into an empty net
9
Blake Coleman · 3rd 19:13 · EN · 6–3
Snap shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
4
Elias Lindholm, Dillon Dube · wrap around shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
2–2
5
Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
3–2
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
21/24 saves · 3 GA · 3.7 xGA
Stopped 0.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.
35/39 saves · 4 GA · 4.1 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
