CGY
4–3
TBL
Final / OT · W
Calgary Flames
CGY · 29-34-7
4–3
Final / OTW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 43-21-5
1ST2ND3RDOTT
CGY
2111110611429
TBL
11011511000335
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
CGY 29-34-7 · TBL 43-21-5 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Flames beat the Lightning
The Flames were outchanced (4.0 to 2.7 expected goals) but won it in overtime on Strome's goal anyway.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 4.0 expected goals to 2.7, on 35 and 29 shots on goal.
CGY 2.7 xG · 29 shots
TBL 4.0 xG · 35 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.0 · 0.8
2nd · the swing
1.0 · 1.9
3rd
0.5 · 1.3
OT
0.2 · 0.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Ryan McDonagh · 1st 07:25 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Victor Olofsson · 1st 16:25 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Morgan Frost · 1st 16:52 · 2–1 · snap shot, a good chance (14%)
4
Mikael Backlund · 2nd 08:28 · 3–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Darren Raddysh · 2nd 11:47 · 3–2 · slap shot, a great chance (43%)
6
Pontus Holmberg · 3rd 15:40 · 3–3 · snap shot, a great chance (27%)
7
Ryan Strome · OT 00:26 · 4–3 · snap shot, a good chance (17%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Flames win 30.
CGY 30%TBL 70%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 1 penalty← Flames shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Ryan McDonagh · 1st 07:25 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Victor Olofsson · 1st 16:25 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Morgan Frost · 1st 16:52 · 2–1
Snap shot, a good chance (14%)
4
Mikael Backlund · 2nd 08:28 · 3–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Darren Raddysh · 2nd 11:47 · 3–2
Slap shot, a great chance (43%)
6
Pontus Holmberg · 3rd 15:40 · 3–3
Snap shot, a great chance (27%)
7
Ryan Strome · OT 00:26 · GWG · 4–3
Snap shot, a good chance (17%)
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
12:01
Tyson Gross· Tripping
Tyson Gross· Tripping
Killed
Minor
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
Goaltending
32/35 saves · 3 GA · 3.5 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
25/29 saves · 4 GA · 3.5 xGA
Allowed 0.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
The Flames killed all 1 Lightning power play.