Carolina Hurricanes
CAR · 8-3-1
1–3
FinalL
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 7-4-2
1ST2ND3RDT
CAR
11108011130
TOR
0411225321
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Hurricanes trail the season series 0–1
CAR 8-3-1 · TOR 7-4-2 · First meeting this season — the Hurricanes trail the season series 0–1
Hurricanes fell to the Maple Leafs
The Hurricanes created the better chances (3.5 to 1.8 expected goals) — and lost 1–3. Erik Kallgren stopped 2.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Hurricanes created the better chances: 3.5 expected goals to 1.8, on 30 and 21 shots on goal.
CAR 3.5 xG · 30 shots
TOR 1.8 xG · 21 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st · the swing
1.2 · 0.2
2nd
1.3 · 0.9
3rd
1.1 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Stefan Noesen · 1st 08:11 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
2
Calle Jarnkrok · 2nd 18:30 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
3
John Tavares · 3rd 08:24 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
4
William Nylander · 3rd 16:25 · 1–3 · backhand shot, a good chance (16%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Hurricanes win 76.
CAR 76%TOR 24%
Goals and penalties
4 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Stefan Noesen · 1st 08:11 · PP · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
2
Calle Jarnkrok · 2nd 18:30 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
3
John Tavares · 3rd 08:24 · GWG · 1–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
4
William Nylander · 3rd 16:25 · 1–3
Backhand shot, a good chance (16%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
18/21 saves · 3 GA · 1.8 xGA
Allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
29/30 saves · 1 GA · 3.5 xGA
Stopped 2.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.