CAR
5–2
WSH
Final · W
Carolina Hurricanes
CAR · 7-2
5–2
FinalW
Washington Capitals
WSH · 5-4
1ST2ND3RDT
CAR
113112313538
WSH
080726221
goals · shots on goal
Game 4 — the Hurricanes lead the series 3–1
CAR 7-2 · WSH 5-4 · Game 4 — the Hurricanes lead the series 3–1
Hurricanes beat the Capitals
Chances were even (2.3 to 2.1 expected goals); the Hurricanes won 5–2. Logan Thompson allowed 1.7 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.3 expected goals to 2.1, on 38 and 21 shots on goal.
CAR 2.3 xG · 38 shots
WSH 2.1 xG · 21 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.6 · 0.7
2nd
0.7 · 0.7
3rd
1.0 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Shayne Gostisbehere · 1st 10:24 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
2
Seth Jarvis · 2nd 01:05 · 2–0 · bat shot on a rebound, a good chance (18%)
3
Jakob Chychrun · 3rd 05:18 · 2–1 · snap shot, a good chance (22%)
4
Taylor Hall · 3rd 08:24 · 3–1 · snap shot, a good chance (23%)
5
Alex Ovechkin · 3rd 12:14 · 3–2 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Sean Walker · 3rd 16:45 · 4–2 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
7
Andrei Svechnikov · 3rd 17:39 · 5–2 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Hurricanes win 54.
CAR 54%WSH 46%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Hurricanes shoot this way
Capitals shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Shayne Gostisbehere · 1st 10:24 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
2
Seth Jarvis · 2nd 01:05 · 2–0
Bat shot on a rebound, a good chance (18%)
3
Jakob Chychrun · 3rd 05:18 · 2–1
Snap shot, a good chance (22%)
4
Taylor Hall · 3rd 08:24 · GWG · 3–1
Snap shot, a good chance (23%)
5
Alex Ovechkin · 3rd 12:14 · PP · 3–2
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Sean Walker · 3rd 16:45 · 4–2
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
7
Andrei Svechnikov · 3rd 17:39 · EN · 5–2
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
1
Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Eric Robinson · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
1–0
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
19/21 saves · 2 GA · 2.1 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
33/37 saves · 4 GA · 2.3 xGA
Allowed 1.7 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
