CAR 5–4 TBL Final · W
Hurricanes/Schedule/Recap Thu, Feb 26, 2026 · 2025-26 regular season
Carolina Hurricanes
CAR · 37-15-6
5–4
FinalW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 38-15-4
1ST2ND3RDT CAR 313110110533 TBL 21121106428 goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
CAR 37-15-6 · TBL 38-15-4 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1

Hurricanes beat the Lightning

The Hurricanes were outchanced (3.5 to 2.7 expected goals) but won 5–4 anyway. Jonas Johansson allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.

Who had the better chances

The Lightning created the better chances: 3.5 expected goals to 2.7, on 28 and 33 shots on goal.

CAR 2.7 xG · 33 shots TBL 3.5 xG · 28 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st 1.6 · 1.2
2nd 0.7 · 1.2
3rd 0.5 · 1.1
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Hurricanes win 38.
CAR 38%TBL 62%

Goals and penalties

9 goals · 4 penalties
← Hurricanes shoot this way Lightning shoot this way →
On net Missed Bigger = better chance 1Goal, numbered to the list
1st period
1
01:43 Nikolaj Ehlers
K'Andre Miller, Jordan Martinook · snap shot, a good chance (10%)
1–0
2
02:56 Logan Stankoven
Taylor Hall, Jalen Chatfield · snap shot, a great chance (26%)
2–0
3
06:41 Taylor Hall
Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven · wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
3–0
4
16:30 Brandon Hagel
Scott Sabourin, Jake Guentzel · snap shot, a good chance (11%)
3–1
5
17:05 Nikita Kucherov
Brayden Point, J.J. Moser · snap shot, a good chance (15%)
3–2
2nd period
6
01:58 Dominic James
Jake Guentzel, Ryan McDonagh · snap shot, a good chance (16%)
3–3
7
07:21 Seth Jarvis
Andrei Svechnikov, Mark Jankowski · wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
4–3
PEN
13:56 Sebastian Aho· Holding the stick
Point scored on this power play
2 min
Minor
8
14:02 Brayden Point PP
Jake Guentzel, Darren Raddysh · Power play (Aho, holding the stick) · snap shot, a good chance (25%)
4–4
PEN
15:33 Nikita Kucherov· Slashing
Killed
2 min
Minor
3rd period
PEN
02:34 Jackson Blake· Holding
Killed
2 min
Minor
PEN
06:43 Gage Goncalves· Tripping
Aho scored on this power play
2 min
Minor
9
07:17 Sebastian Aho PPGWG
Seth Jarvis, Andrei Svechnikov · Power play (Goncalves, tripping) · slap shot, a good chance (10%)
5–4
Goaltending
−0.4
vs expected
24/28 saves · 4 GA · 3.6 xGA Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
−1.2
vs expected
28/33 saves · 5 GA · 3.8 xGA Allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Team CARTBL
Shots on goal
33
28
Expected goals
2.7
3.5
Hits
23
15
Blocks
21
17
Faceoffs
45%
55%
Power play
1/2
1/2
Penalty minutes
4
4
The Hurricanes went 1-for-2 on the power play and allowed 1 on 2 Lightning power plays.