COL
8–6
EDM
Final · W
Colorado Avalanche
COL · 9-2
8–6
FinalW
Edmonton Oilers
EDM · 8-5
1ST2ND3RDT
COL
316415116847
EDM
28219210637
goals · shots on goal
Game 1 — the Avalanche lead the series 1–0
COL 9-2 · EDM 8-5 · Game 1 — the Avalanche lead the series 1–0
Avalanche beat the Oilers
Chances were even (4.3 to 3.9 expected goals); the Avalanche won 8–6. Mike Smith allowed 3.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 4.3 expected goals to 3.9, on 47 and 37 shots on goal.
COL 4.3 xG · 47 shots
EDM 3.9 xG · 37 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.3 · 0.8
2nd
1.9 · 1.5
3rd
1.1 · 1.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Evander Kane · 1st 05:04 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
2
J.T. Compher · 1st 05:40 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3
Nathan MacKinnon · 1st 15:10 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
4
Zach Hyman · 1st 19:37 · 2–2 · tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
5
Cale Makar · 1st 19:46 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
6
Nazem Kadri · 2nd 00:32 · 4–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (34%)
7
Ryan McLeod · 2nd 02:59 · 4–3 · backhand shot on a rebound, a good chance (16%)
8
Mikko Rantanen · 2nd 04:38 · 5–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
9
J.T. Compher · 2nd 06:20 · 6–3 · deflected shot, a good chance (13%)
10
Andrew Cogliano · 2nd 16:20 · 7–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
11
Connor McDavid · 2nd 16:51 · 7–4 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
12
Derek Ryan · 3rd 03:28 · 7–5 · wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
13
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · 3rd 12:36 · 7–6 · snap shot, a good chance (16%)
14
Gabriel Landeskog · 3rd 19:38 · 8–6 · wrist shot off the rush, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Avalanche win 56.
COL 56%EDM 44%
Goals and penalties
14 goals · 0 penalties← Avalanche shoot this way
Oilers shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Evander Kane · 1st 05:04 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
2
J.T. Compher · 1st 05:40 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3
Nathan MacKinnon · 1st 15:10 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
4
Zach Hyman · 1st 19:37 · 2–2
Tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
5
Cale Makar · 1st 19:46 · 3–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
6
Nazem Kadri · 2nd 00:32 · PP · 4–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (34%)
7
Ryan McLeod · 2nd 02:59 · 4–3
Backhand shot on a rebound, a good chance (16%)
8
Mikko Rantanen · 2nd 04:38 · 5–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
9
J.T. Compher · 2nd 06:20 · 6–3
Deflected shot, a good chance (13%)
10
Andrew Cogliano · 2nd 16:20 · GWG · 7–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
11
Connor McDavid · 2nd 16:51 · 7–4
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
12
Derek Ryan · 3rd 03:28 · 7–5
Wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
13
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · 3rd 12:36 · PP · 7–6
Snap shot, a good chance (16%)
14
Gabriel Landeskog · 3rd 19:38 · EN · 8–6
Wrist shot off the rush, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
8
Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
5–3
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
18/21 saves · 3 GA · 2.5 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
13/16 saves · 3 GA · 1.4 xGA
Allowed 1.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
