COL
2–3
TBL
Final · L
Colorado Avalanche
COL · 15-4
2–3
FinalL
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 14-8
1ST2ND3RDT
COL
012114111237
TBL
11118110329
goals · shots on goal
Game 5 — the Avalanche lead the series 3–2
COL 15-4 · TBL 14-8 · Game 5 — the Avalanche lead the series 3–2
Avalanche fell to the Lightning
Chances were even (2.7 to 2.2 expected goals); the Avalanche lost 2–3.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.7 expected goals to 2.2, on 37 and 29 shots on goal.
COL 2.7 xG · 37 shots
TBL 2.2 xG · 29 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.0 · 0.7
2nd · the swing
1.4 · 0.6
3rd
0.3 · 1.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Jan Rutta · 1st 15:23 · 0–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
2
Valeri Nichushkin · 2nd 05:07 · 1–1 · backhand shot on a rebound, a great chance (29%)
3
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 08:10 · 1–2 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
4
Cale Makar · 3rd 02:31 · 2–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
5
Ondrej Palat · 3rd 13:38 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Avalanche win 58.
COL 58%TBL 42%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Avalanche shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Jan Rutta · 1st 15:23 · 0–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
2
Valeri Nichushkin · 2nd 05:07 · 1–1
Backhand shot on a rebound, a great chance (29%)
3
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 08:10 · PP · 1–2
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
4
Cale Makar · 3rd 02:31 · 2–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
5
Ondrej Palat · 3rd 13:38 · GWG · 2–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
4
Devon Toews, Valeri Nichushkin · wrist shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
2–2
No penalties
Goaltending
26/29 saves · 3 GA · 2.2 xGA
Allowed 0.8 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
35/37 saves · 2 GA · 2.7 xGA
Stopped 0.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.
