Colorado Avalanche
COL · 15-11-2
2–4
FinalL
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 14-14-2
1ST2ND3RDT
COL
012012217241
BUF
2111911421
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
COL 15-11-2 · BUF 14-14-2 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Avalanche fell to the Sabres
The Avalanche created the better chances (4.3 to 2.2 expected goals) — and lost 2–4. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 2.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Avalanche created the better chances: 4.3 expected goals to 2.2, on 41 and 21 shots on goal.
COL 4.3 xG · 41 shots
BUF 2.2 xG · 21 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.6 · 1.3
2nd
1.4 · 0.8
3rd · the swing
1.3 · 0.1
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Tage Thompson · 1st 00:54 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a great chance (28%)
2
Alex Tuch · 1st 07:08 · 0–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (30%)
3
Rasmus Dahlin · 2nd 17:11 · 0–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Mikko Rantanen · 3rd 08:20 · 1–3 · snap shot, a good chance (12%)
5
Evan Rodrigues · 3rd 18:38 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
6
Dylan Cozens · 3rd 19:02 · 2–4 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Avalanche win 79.
COL 79%BUF 21%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Tage Thompson · 1st 00:54 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a great chance (28%)
2
Alex Tuch · 1st 07:08 · PP · 0–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (30%)
3
Rasmus Dahlin · 2nd 17:11 · GWG · 0–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Mikko Rantanen · 3rd 08:20 · 1–3
Snap shot, a good chance (12%)
5
Evan Rodrigues · 3rd 18:38 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 2–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
6
Dylan Cozens · 3rd 19:02 · EN · 2–4
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
17/20 saves · 3 GA · 2.2 xGA
Allowed 0.8 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
39/41 saves · 2 GA · 4.3 xGA
Stopped 2.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.