COL
5–2
DAL
Final · W
Colorado Avalanche
COL · 45-24-6
5–2
FinalW
Dallas Stars
DAL · 41-21-14
1ST2ND3RDT
COL
19211212532
DAL
01017111228
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 4 this season — the Avalanche lead the season series 3–1
COL 45-24-6 · DAL 41-21-14 · Meeting 4 this season — the Avalanche lead the season series 3–1
Avalanche beat the Stars
Chances were even (2.3 to 2.3 expected goals); the Avalanche won 5–2. The Stars scored 2 power-play goals.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.3 expected goals to 2.3, on 32 and 28 shots on goal.
COL 2.3 xG · 32 shots
DAL 2.3 xG · 28 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.5 · 1.0
2nd
0.6 · 0.8
3rd
1.2 · 0.5
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Nathan MacKinnon · 1st 08:54 · 1–0 · snap shot, a good chance (14%)
2
Logan O'Connor · 2nd 06:04 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Tyler Seguin · 2nd 11:54 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
4
Nathan MacKinnon · 2nd 19:47 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
5
Valeri Nichushkin · 3rd 16:52 · 4–1 · tip in shot, into an empty net
6
Joe Pavelski · 3rd 18:44 · 4–2 · tip in shot, a good chance (11%)
7
Mikko Rantanen · 3rd 19:48 · 5–2 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Avalanche win 49.
COL 49%DAL 51%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Avalanche shoot this way
Stars shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Nathan MacKinnon · 1st 08:54 · 1–0
Snap shot, a good chance (14%)
2
Logan O'Connor · 2nd 06:04 · 2–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Tyler Seguin · 2nd 11:54 · PP · 2–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
4
Nathan MacKinnon · 2nd 19:47 · PP · GWG · 3–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
5
Valeri Nichushkin · 3rd 16:52 · EN · 4–1
Tip in shot, into an empty net
6
Joe Pavelski · 3rd 18:44 · PP · 4–2
Tip in shot, a good chance (11%)
7
Mikko Rantanen · 3rd 19:48 · EN · 5–2
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
26/28 saves · 2 GA · 2.3 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
27/30 saves · 3 GA · 2.3 xGA
Allowed 0.7 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
