COL
4–1
TBL
Final · W
Colorado Avalanche
COL · 15-6-0
4–1
FinalW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 10-7-5
1ST2ND3RDT
COL
182817423
TBL
014113012139
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Avalanche lead the season series 1–0
COL 15-6-0 · TBL 10-7-5 · First meeting this season — the Avalanche lead the season series 1–0
Avalanche beat the Lightning
Chances were even (3.1 to 3.6 expected goals); the Avalanche won 4–1. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 2.6 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 3.1 expected goals to 3.6, on 23 and 39 shots on goal.
COL 3.1 xG · 23 shots
TBL 3.6 xG · 39 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.1 · 1.2
2nd
1.5 · 1.4
3rd
0.4 · 1.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Ryan Johansen · 1st 07:12 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
2
Ryan Johansen · 2nd 01:48 · 2–0 · snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (28%)
3
Cale Makar · 2nd 03:35 · 3–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
4
Anthony Cirelli · 2nd 19:29 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
5
Valeri Nichushkin · 3rd 16:46 · 4–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Avalanche win 43.
COL 43%TBL 57%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Avalanche shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Ryan Johansen · 1st 07:12 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
2
Ryan Johansen · 2nd 01:48 · GWG · 2–0
Snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (28%)
3
Cale Makar · 2nd 03:35 · PP · 3–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
4
Anthony Cirelli · 2nd 19:29 · 3–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
5
Valeri Nichushkin · 3rd 16:46 · EN · 4–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
38/39 saves · 1 GA · 3.6 xGA
Stopped 2.6 more goals than an average goalie would have.
19/22 saves · 3 GA · 3.1 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
