COL
1–4
DAL
Final · L
Colorado Avalanche
COL · 5-3
1–4
FinalL
Dallas Stars
DAL · 6-4
1ST2ND3RDT
COL
01111107129
DAL
1518210423
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Avalanche trail the series 1–2
COL 5-3 · DAL 6-4 · Game 3 — the Avalanche trail the series 1–2
Avalanche fell to the Stars
The Avalanche created the better chances (3.1 to 2.1 expected goals) — and lost 1–4. Jake Oettinger stopped 2.1 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Avalanche created the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 2.1, on 29 and 23 shots on goal.
COL 3.1 xG · 29 shots
DAL 2.1 xG · 23 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.8 · 0.5
2nd
1.7 · 1.1
3rd
0.6 · 0.5
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Logan Stankoven · 1st 18:39 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Mikko Rantanen · 2nd 10:24 · 1–1 · backhand shot, a great chance (52%)
3
Tyler Seguin · 2nd 15:13 · 1–2 · tip in shot off the rush, a good chance (25%)
4
Tyler Seguin · 3rd 18:23 · 1–3 · wrist shot, into an empty net
5
Logan Stankoven · 3rd 19:32 · 1–4 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Avalanche win 67.
COL 67%DAL 33%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Avalanche shoot this way
Stars shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Logan Stankoven · 1st 18:39 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Mikko Rantanen · 2nd 10:24 · 1–1
Backhand shot, a great chance (52%)
3
Tyler Seguin · 2nd 15:13 · GWG · 1–2
Tip in shot off the rush, a good chance (25%)
4
Tyler Seguin · 3rd 18:23 · EN · 1–3
Wrist shot, into an empty net
5
Logan Stankoven · 3rd 19:32 · EN · 1–4
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
19/21 saves · 2 GA · 2.1 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
28/29 saves · 1 GA · 3.1 xGA
Stopped 2.1 more goals than an average goalie would have.
