Colorado Avalanche
COL · 5-4
1–5
FinalL
Dallas Stars
DAL · 7-4
1ST2ND3RDT
COL
02111012125
DAL
11621226534
goals · shots on goal
Game 4 — the Avalanche trail the series 1–3
COL 5-4 · DAL 7-4 · Game 4 — the Avalanche trail the series 1–3
Avalanche fell to the Stars
The Avalanche were outchanced (4.1 to 2.0 expected goals) and lost 1–5. Jake Oettinger stopped 1.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Stars created the better chances: 4.1 expected goals to 2.0, on 34 and 25 shots on goal.
COL 2.0 xG · 25 shots
DAL 4.1 xG · 34 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st · the swing
0.3 · 2.1
2nd
0.8 · 1.3
3rd
0.9 · 0.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Wyatt Johnston · 1st 15:37 · 0–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (32%)
2
Wyatt Johnston · 2nd 05:46 · 0–2 · snap shot, a good chance (20%)
3
Miro Heiskanen · 2nd 11:24 · 0–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
4
Casey Mittelstadt · 2nd 12:35 · 1–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
5
Evgenii Dadonov · 3rd 09:27 · 1–4 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (28%)
6
Sam Steel · 3rd 18:10 · 1–5 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Avalanche win 20.
COL 20%DAL 80%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Wyatt Johnston · 1st 15:37 · SH · 0–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (32%)
2
Wyatt Johnston · 2nd 05:46 · PP · GWG · 0–2
Snap shot, a good chance (20%)
3
Miro Heiskanen · 2nd 11:24 · 0–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
4
Casey Mittelstadt · 2nd 12:35 · 1–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
5
Evgenii Dadonov · 3rd 09:27 · 1–4
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (28%)
6
Sam Steel · 3rd 18:10 · EN · 1–5
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
29/33 saves · 4 GA · 4.1 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
24/25 saves · 1 GA · 2.0 xGA
Stopped 1.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.