COL
4–3
DAL
Final / OT · W
Colorado Avalanche
COL · 41-24-3
4–3
Final / OTW
Dallas Stars
DAL · 42-21-3
1ST2ND3RDOTT
COL
1122140811435
DAL
140621200322
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Avalanche lead the season series 2–1
COL 41-24-3 · DAL 42-21-3 · Meeting 3 this season — the Avalanche lead the season series 2–1
Avalanche beat the Stars
The Avalanche earned it: 3.8 expected goals to 2.4, and they won it in overtime on Makar's goal. The Avalanche owned the 1st period, 1.6 to 0.5 in expected goals.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Avalanche created the better chances: 3.8 expected goals to 2.4, on 35 and 22 shots on goal.
COL 3.8 xG · 35 shots
DAL 2.4 xG · 22 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st · the swing
1.6 · 0.5
2nd
0.8 · 0.7
3rd
1.3 · 1.2
OT
0.2 · 0.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Jason Robertson · 1st 04:10 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a great chance (41%)
2
Martin Necas · 1st 14:09 · 1–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (15%)
3
Valeri Nichushkin · 2nd 06:24 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
4
Jonathan Drouin · 2nd 17:19 · 3–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
5
Mavrik Bourque · 3rd 14:12 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a great chance (26%)
6
Matt Duchene · 3rd 14:32 · 3–3 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (26%)
7
Cale Makar · OT 00:34 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Avalanche win 72.
COL 72%DAL 28%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Avalanche shoot this way
Stars shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Jason Robertson · 1st 04:10 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a great chance (41%)
2
Martin Necas · 1st 14:09 · PP · 1–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (15%)
3
Valeri Nichushkin · 2nd 06:24 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
4
Jonathan Drouin · 2nd 17:19 · 3–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
5
Mavrik Bourque · 3rd 14:12 · 3–2
Wrist shot, a great chance (26%)
6
Matt Duchene · 3rd 14:32 · 3–3
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (26%)
7
Cale Makar · OT 00:34 · GWG · 4–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
19/22 saves · 3 GA · 2.4 xGA
Allowed 0.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
31/35 saves · 4 GA · 3.8 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
