COL
3–4
TOR
Final / OT · L
Colorado Avalanche
COL · 33-4-8
3–4
Final / OTL
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 23-15-7
1ST2ND3RDOTT
COL
2130711202334
TOR
115191513432
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Avalanche trail the season series 0–1
COL 33-4-8 · TOR 23-15-7 · First meeting this season — the Avalanche trail the season series 0–1
Avalanche fell to the Maple Leafs
The Avalanche created the better chances (3.1 to 2.3 expected goals) — and lost it in overtime on Nylander's goal. The Avalanche owned the 3rd period, 1.3 to 0.1 in expected goals.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Avalanche created the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 2.3, on 34 and 31 shots on goal.
COL 3.1 xG · 34 shots
TOR 2.3 xG · 31 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.0 · 0.9
2nd
0.4 · 0.6
3rd · the swing
1.3 · 0.1
OT
0.4 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Easton Cowan · 1st 11:15 · 0–1
2
Cale Makar · 1st 16:12 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
3
Brock Nelson · 1st 17:53 · 2–1 · slap shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Bobby McMann · 2nd 02:12 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
5
Auston Matthews · 3rd 10:24 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
6
Martin Necas · 3rd 12:55 · 3–3 · tip in shot, a good chance (17%)
7
William Nylander · OT 03:59 · 3–4 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Avalanche win 63.
COL 63%TOR 37%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 7 penalties← Avalanche shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Easton Cowan · 1st 11:15 · 0–1
2
Cale Makar · 1st 16:12 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
3
Brock Nelson · 1st 17:53 · PP · 2–1
Slap shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Bobby McMann · 2nd 02:12 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
5
Auston Matthews · 3rd 10:24 · 2–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
6
Martin Necas · 3rd 12:55 · 3–3
Tip in shot, a good chance (17%)
7
William Nylander · OT 03:59 · GWG · 3–4
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
13:29
Cale Makar· Tripping
Cale Makar· Tripping
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
17:48
Morgan Rielly· Interference
Morgan Rielly· Interference
Nelson scored on this power play
Minor
3
Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Power play (Rielly, interference) · slap shot, a good chance (13%)
2–1
2nd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
09:18
· High-sticking
· High-sticking
Killed
Minor
3rd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
04:31
Bobby McMann· Tripping
Bobby McMann· Tripping
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:08
Scott Laughton· High-sticking
Scott Laughton· High-sticking
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:08
Martin Necas· Holding
Martin Necas· Holding
Offsetting
Minor
5
William Nylander, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
2–3
PEN
2 min
Minor
17:18
Auston Matthews· Tripping
Auston Matthews· Tripping
Killed
Minor
Overtime
Goaltending
28/31 saves · 3 GA · 2.3 xGA
Allowed 0.7 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
31/34 saves · 3 GA · 3.1 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
The Avalanche went 1-for-3 on the power play and killed all 2 Maple Leafs power plays.