DAL
4–2
CGY
Final · W
Dallas Stars
DAL · 2-1
4–2
FinalW
Calgary Flames
CGY · 1-2
1ST2ND3RDT
DAL
11211228432
CGY
113116012241
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Stars lead the series 2–1
DAL 2-1 · CGY 1-2 · Game 3 — the Stars lead the series 2–1
Stars beat the Flames
The Stars were outchanced (4.7 to 3.0 expected goals) but won 4–2 anyway. Jake Oettinger stopped 2.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Flames created the better chances: 4.7 expected goals to 3.0, on 41 and 32 shots on goal.
DAL 3.0 xG · 32 shots
CGY 4.7 xG · 41 shots
0
1
2
3
4
5
1st
1.0 · 1.7
2nd
1.5 · 2.1
3rd
0.5 · 1.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Radek Faksa · 1st 08:21 · 1–0 · tip in shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Trevor Lewis · 1st 13:45 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
3
Elias Lindholm · 2nd 03:40 · 1–2 · snap shot, a good chance (10%)
4
Joe Pavelski · 2nd 11:41 · 2–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (28%)
5
Joe Pavelski · 3rd 10:05 · 3–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
6
Roope Hintz · 3rd 19:59 · 4–2 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Stars win 27.
DAL 27%CGY 73%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Stars shoot this way
Flames shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Radek Faksa · 1st 08:21 · 1–0
Tip in shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Trevor Lewis · 1st 13:45 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
3
Elias Lindholm · 2nd 03:40 · 1–2
Snap shot, a good chance (10%)
4
Joe Pavelski · 2nd 11:41 · 2–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (28%)
5
Joe Pavelski · 3rd 10:05 · PP · GWG · 3–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
6
Roope Hintz · 3rd 19:59 · EN · 4–2
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
39/41 saves · 2 GA · 4.7 xGA
Stopped 2.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.
28/31 saves · 3 GA · 3.0 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
