Dallas Stars
DAL · 0-1
2–3
Final / OTL
Minnesota Wild
MIN · 1-0
1ST2ND3RDOT2OTT
DAL
0521001202600253
MIN
1101190701210348
goals · shots on goal
Game 1 — the Stars trail the series 0–1
DAL 0-1 · MIN 1-0 · Game 1 — the Stars trail the series 0–1
Stars fell to the Wild
The Stars created the better chances (4.3 to 3.4 expected goals) — and lost it in overtime on Hartman's goal. Filip Gustavsson stopped 2.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Stars created the better chances: 4.3 expected goals to 3.4, on 53 and 48 shots on goal.
DAL 4.3 xG · 53 shots
MIN 3.4 xG · 48 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
0.4 · 0.8
2nd
0.5 · 1.5
3rd
0.7 · 0.3
OT · the swing
2.7 · 0.9
2OT
0.0 · 0.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Kirill Kaprizov · 1st 19:12 · 0–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
2
Roope Hintz · 2nd 02:08 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Jason Robertson · 2nd 04:13 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
4
Sam Steel · 2nd 14:25 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
5
Ryan Hartman · 2OT 12:20 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Stars win 62.
DAL 62%MIN 38%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Kirill Kaprizov · 1st 19:12 · PP · 0–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
2
Roope Hintz · 2nd 02:08 · PP · 1–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Jason Robertson · 2nd 04:13 · PP · 2–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
4
Sam Steel · 2nd 14:25 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
5
Ryan Hartman · 2OT 12:20 · GWG · 2–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No goals or penalties.
2nd overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
45/48 saves · 3 GA · 3.4 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
51/53 saves · 2 GA · 4.3 xGA
Stopped 2.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.