Dallas Stars
DAL · 9-8
3–2
Final / OTW
Vegas Golden Knights
VGK · 11-4
1ST2ND3RDOTT
DAL
1111190814342
VGK
11311001402239
goals · shots on goal
Game 4 — the Stars trail the series 1–3
DAL 9-8 · VGK 11-4 · Game 4 — the Stars trail the series 1–3
Stars beat the Golden Knights
The Stars earned it: 3.3 expected goals to 2.4, and they won it in overtime on Pavelski's goal. The Stars scored 2 power-play goals.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Stars created the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 2.4, on 42 and 39 shots on goal.
DAL 3.3 xG · 42 shots
VGK 2.4 xG · 39 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.1 · 0.9
2nd
1.3 · 0.7
3rd
0.4 · 0.8
OT
0.4 · 0.1
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
William Karlsson · 1st 04:17 · 0–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Jason Robertson · 1st 15:42 · 1–1 · bat shot on a rebound, a good chance (20%)
3
Jonathan Marchessault · 2nd 10:23 · 1–2 · snap shot, a good chance (15%)
4
Jason Robertson · 2nd 17:21 · 2–2 · poke shot, a good chance (14%)
5
Joe Pavelski · OT 03:18 · 3–2 · slap shot, a good chance (14%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Stars win 64.
DAL 64%VGK 36%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
William Karlsson · 1st 04:17 · 0–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Jason Robertson · 1st 15:42 · PP · 1–1
Bat shot on a rebound, a good chance (20%)
3
Jonathan Marchessault · 2nd 10:23 · 1–2
Snap shot, a good chance (15%)
4
Jason Robertson · 2nd 17:21 · 2–2
Poke shot, a good chance (14%)
5
Joe Pavelski · OT 03:18 · PP · GWG · 3–2
Slap shot, a good chance (14%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No goals or penalties.
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
37/39 saves · 2 GA · 2.4 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
39/42 saves · 3 GA · 3.3 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.