DAL
3–5
COL
Final · L
Dallas Stars
DAL · 7-5
3–5
FinalL
Colorado Avalanche
COL · 6-4
1ST2ND3RDT
DAL
1818110326
COL
1911038527
goals · shots on goal
Game 5 — the Stars lead the series 3–2
DAL 7-5 · COL 6-4 · Game 5 — the Stars lead the series 3–2
Stars fell to the Avalanche
The Stars created the better chances (3.4 to 2.7 expected goals) — and lost 3–5. Jake Oettinger allowed 2.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Stars created the better chances: 3.4 expected goals to 2.7, on 26 and 27 shots on goal.
DAL 3.4 xG · 26 shots
COL 2.7 xG · 27 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.8 · 1.2
2nd
1.0 · 0.7
3rd · the swing
1.6 · 0.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Joe Pavelski · 1st 09:03 · 1–0 · backhand shot, a great chance (30%)
2
Artturi Lehkonen · 1st 19:59 · 1–1 · slap shot, a great chance (27%)
3
Miro Heiskanen · 2nd 11:39 · 2–1 · snap shot, a good chance (20%)
4
Cale Makar · 2nd 17:24 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
5
Casey Mittelstadt · 3rd 01:12 · 2–3 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
6
Cale Makar · 3rd 04:28 · 2–4 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
7
Logan Stankoven · 3rd 05:44 · 3–4 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
8
Nathan MacKinnon · 3rd 16:50 · 3–5 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Stars win 61.
DAL 61%COL 39%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 0 penalties← Stars shoot this way
Avalanche shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Joe Pavelski · 1st 09:03 · 1–0
Backhand shot, a great chance (30%)
2
Artturi Lehkonen · 1st 19:59 · PP · 1–1
Slap shot, a great chance (27%)
3
Miro Heiskanen · 2nd 11:39 · PP · 2–1
Snap shot, a good chance (20%)
4
Cale Makar · 2nd 17:24 · PP · 2–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
5
Casey Mittelstadt · 3rd 01:12 · 2–3
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
6
Cale Makar · 3rd 04:28 · GWG · 2–4
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
7
Logan Stankoven · 3rd 05:44 · 3–4
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
8
Nathan MacKinnon · 3rd 16:50 · 3–5
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
22/27 saves · 5 GA · 2.7 xGA
Allowed 2.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
23/26 saves · 3 GA · 3.4 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
