Dallas Stars
DAL · 43-21-4
2–3
Final / SOL
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 40-23-5
1ST2ND3RDOTSOT
DAL
082808000224
TBL
11419012031338
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
DAL 43-21-4 · TBL 40-23-5 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Stars fell to the Lightning
The Stars were outchanced (3.2 to 2.0 expected goals) and lost it in a shootout. Casey DeSmith stopped 1.2 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 3.2 expected goals to 2.0, on 38 and 24 shots on goal.
DAL 2.0 xG · 24 shots
TBL 3.2 xG · 38 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.8 · 1.2
2nd
0.9 · 1.1
3rd
0.3 · 0.6
OT
0.0 · 0.3
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Brandon Hagel · 1st 04:35 · 0–1 · snap shot, a good chance (17%)
2
Anthony Cirelli · 2nd 07:21 · 0–2 · backhand shot on a rebound, a good chance (16%)
3
Oskar Bäck · 2nd 07:58 · 1–2 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Mason Marchment · 2nd 13:48 · 2–2 · poke shot, a great chance (39%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Stars win 30.
DAL 30%TBL 70%
Goals and penalties
4 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Brandon Hagel · 1st 04:35 · 0–1
Snap shot, a good chance (17%)
2
Anthony Cirelli · 2nd 07:21 · 0–2
Backhand shot on a rebound, a good chance (16%)
3
Oskar Bäck · 2nd 07:58 · 1–2
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Mason Marchment · 2nd 13:48 · PP · 2–2
Poke shot, a great chance (39%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No goals or penalties.
No penalties
Shootout
Decided in a shootout — Lightning
Goaltending
36/38 saves · 2 GA · 3.2 xGA
Stopped 1.2 more goals than an average goalie would have.
22/24 saves · 2 GA · 2.0 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.