DAL
5–2
WPG
Final · W
Dallas Stars
DAL · 6-4
5–2
FinalW
Winnipeg Jets
WPG · 5-5
1ST2ND3RDT
DAL
2100838526
WPG
1811008226
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Stars lead the series 2–1
DAL 6-4 · WPG 5-5 · Game 3 — the Stars lead the series 2–1
Stars beat the Jets
The Stars earned it: 3.5 expected goals to 2.3, and a 5–2 win to show for it. Connor Hellebuyck allowed 1.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Stars created the better chances: 3.5 expected goals to 2.3, on 26 and 26 shots on goal.
DAL 3.5 xG · 26 shots
WPG 2.3 xG · 26 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.2 · 1.0
2nd
1.2 · 0.7
3rd
1.2 · 0.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Roope Hintz · 1st 02:27 · 1–0 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Kyle Connor · 1st 09:53 · 1–1 · wrap around shot, a good chance (11%)
3
Thomas Harley · 1st 15:12 · 2–1 · snap shot, a good chance (20%)
4
Nino Niederreiter · 2nd 10:07 · 2–2 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Alexander Petrovic · 3rd 03:51 · 3–2 · deflected shot, a good chance (23%)
6
Mikko Rantanen · 3rd 04:40 · 4–2 · snap shot, a good chance (16%)
7
Wyatt Johnston · 3rd 14:06 · 5–2 · snap shot, a good chance (18%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Stars win 69.
DAL 69%WPG 31%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Stars shoot this way
Jets shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Roope Hintz · 1st 02:27 · PP · 1–0
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Kyle Connor · 1st 09:53 · 1–1
Wrap around shot, a good chance (11%)
3
Thomas Harley · 1st 15:12 · 2–1
Snap shot, a good chance (20%)
4
Nino Niederreiter · 2nd 10:07 · 2–2
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Alexander Petrovic · 3rd 03:51 · GWG · 3–2
Deflected shot, a good chance (23%)
6
Mikko Rantanen · 3rd 04:40 · 4–2
Snap shot, a good chance (16%)
7
Wyatt Johnston · 3rd 14:06 · 5–2
Snap shot, a good chance (18%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
24/26 saves · 2 GA · 2.3 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
21/26 saves · 5 GA · 3.5 xGA
Allowed 1.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
