DAL
6–3
EDM
Final · W
Dallas Stars
DAL · 9-5
6–3
FinalW
Edmonton Oilers
EDM · 8-4
1ST2ND3RDT
DAL
11007511628
EDM
1122906327
goals · shots on goal
Game 1 — the Stars lead the series 1–0
DAL 9-5 · EDM 8-4 · Game 1 — the Stars lead the series 1–0
Stars beat the Oilers
Down 1–3 in the 2nd period, the Stars erased the deficit with five unanswered goals — Granlund's equalizer — and won 6–3. Stuart Skinner allowed 2.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Oilers created the better chances: 3.0 expected goals to 2.4, on 27 and 28 shots on goal.
DAL 2.4 xG · 28 shots
EDM 3.0 xG · 27 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.7 · 1.1
2nd
0.4 · 1.0
3rd
1.2 · 0.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Leon Draisaitl · 1st 10:19 · 0–1 · snap shot, a good chance (12%)
2
Tyler Seguin · 1st 15:22 · 1–1 · snap shot off the rush, a good chance (23%)
3
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · 2nd 06:08 · 1–2 · snap shot, a good chance (18%)
4
Evan Bouchard · 2nd 07:48 · 1–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
5
Miro Heiskanen · 3rd 00:32 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
6
Mikael Granlund · 3rd 03:49 · 3–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
7
Matt Duchene · 3rd 05:58 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
8
Tyler Seguin · 3rd 16:02 · 5–3 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
9
Esa Lindell · 3rd 16:45 · 6–3 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Stars win 40.
DAL 40%EDM 60%
Goals and penalties
9 goals · 0 penalties← Stars shoot this way
Oilers shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Leon Draisaitl · 1st 10:19 · 0–1
Snap shot, a good chance (12%)
2
Tyler Seguin · 1st 15:22 · 1–1
Snap shot off the rush, a good chance (23%)
3
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · 2nd 06:08 · PP · 1–2
Snap shot, a good chance (18%)
4
Evan Bouchard · 2nd 07:48 · 1–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
5
Miro Heiskanen · 3rd 00:32 · PP · 2–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
6
Mikael Granlund · 3rd 03:49 · PP · 3–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
7
Matt Duchene · 3rd 05:58 · PP · GWG · 4–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
8
Tyler Seguin · 3rd 16:02 · 5–3
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
9
Esa Lindell · 3rd 16:45 · EN · 6–3
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
4
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
1–3
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
24/27 saves · 3 GA · 3.0 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
22/27 saves · 5 GA · 2.4 xGA
Allowed 2.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
