EDM
4–1
CGY
Final · W
Edmonton Oilers
EDM · 6-4
4–1
FinalW
Calgary Flames
CGY · 5-5
1ST2ND3RDT
EDM
02141307441
CGY
07012114133
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Oilers lead the series 2–1
EDM 6-4 · CGY 5-5 · Game 3 — the Oilers lead the series 2–1
Oilers beat the Flames
The Oilers earned it: 3.9 expected goals to 3.3, and a 4–1 win to show for it. Mike Smith stopped 2.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Oilers created the better chances: 3.9 expected goals to 3.3, on 41 and 33 shots on goal.
EDM 3.9 xG · 41 shots
CGY 3.3 xG · 33 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.5 · 0.9
2nd · the swing
1.7 · 0.7
3rd
0.7 · 1.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Zach Hyman · 2nd 00:52 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
2
Evander Kane · 2nd 06:58 · 2–0 · backhand shot, a great chance (29%)
3
Evander Kane · 2nd 07:51 · 3–0 · wrist shot, a great chance (29%)
4
Evander Kane · 2nd 12:58 · 4–0 · backhand shot off the rush, a good chance (17%)
5
· 3rd 15:09 · 4–1 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Oilers win 59.
EDM 59%CGY 41%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Oilers shoot this way
Flames shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Zach Hyman · 2nd 00:52 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
2
Evander Kane · 2nd 06:58 · GWG · 2–0
Backhand shot, a great chance (29%)
3
Evander Kane · 2nd 07:51 · 3–0
Wrist shot, a great chance (29%)
4
Evander Kane · 2nd 12:58 · 4–0
Backhand shot off the rush, a good chance (17%)
5
· 3rd 15:09 · 4–1
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
1st period
No goals or penalties.
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
32/33 saves · 1 GA · 3.3 xGA
Stopped 2.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.
0/0 saves · 0 GA · 0.0 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
