EDM
5–3
CGY
Final · W
Edmonton Oilers
EDM · 7-4
5–3
FinalW
Calgary Flames
CGY · 5-6
1ST2ND3RDT
EDM
3907210526
CGY
01327112332
goals · shots on goal
Game 4 — the Oilers lead the series 3–1
EDM 7-4 · CGY 5-6 · Game 4 — the Oilers lead the series 3–1
Oilers beat the Flames
The Oilers earned it: 3.6 expected goals to 2.9, and a 5–3 win to show for it. An empty-net goal padded the final score; it was a one-goal game until then.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Oilers created the better chances: 3.6 expected goals to 2.9, on 26 and 32 shots on goal.
EDM 3.6 xG · 26 shots
CGY 2.9 xG · 32 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.5 · 1.0
2nd
0.9 · 1.1
3rd
1.2 · 0.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · 1st 00:21 · 1–0 · slap shot, a good chance (16%)
2
Zach Hyman · 1st 09:53 · 2–0 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (49%)
3
Evander Kane · 1st 18:54 · 3–0 · slap shot, a good chance (11%)
4
Elias Lindholm · 2nd 09:04 · 3–1 · snap shot, a good chance (19%)
5
Mikael Backlund · 2nd 09:40 · 3–2 · snap shot off the rush, a great chance (28%)
6
Rasmus Andersson · 3rd 10:56 · 3–3 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
7
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · 3rd 16:33 · 4–3 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (18%)
8
Evander Kane · 3rd 19:35 · 5–3 · wrist shot off the rush, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Oilers win 61.
EDM 61%CGY 39%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 0 penalties← Oilers shoot this way
Flames shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · 1st 00:21 · 1–0
Slap shot, a good chance (16%)
2
Zach Hyman · 1st 09:53 · PP · 2–0
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (49%)
3
Evander Kane · 1st 18:54 · 3–0
Slap shot, a good chance (11%)
4
Elias Lindholm · 2nd 09:04 · PP · 3–1
Snap shot, a good chance (19%)
5
Mikael Backlund · 2nd 09:40 · 3–2
Snap shot off the rush, a great chance (28%)
6
Rasmus Andersson · 3rd 10:56 · SH · 3–3
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
7
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · 3rd 16:33 · GWG · 4–3
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (18%)
8
Evander Kane · 3rd 19:35 · EN · 5–3
Wrist shot off the rush, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
6
Unassisted · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
3–3
No penalties
Goaltending
29/32 saves · 3 GA · 2.9 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
21/25 saves · 4 GA · 3.6 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
