EDM
5–2
TOR
Final · W
Edmonton Oilers
EDM · 33-21-8
5–2
FinalW
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 37-16-8
1ST2ND3RDT
EDM
31421107532
TOR
11106111228
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Oilers lead the season series 1–0
EDM 33-21-8 · TOR 37-16-8 · First meeting this season — the Oilers lead the season series 1–0
Oilers beat the Maple Leafs
The Oilers earned it: 3.2 expected goals to 1.7, and a 5–2 win to show for it. Ilya Samsonov allowed 1.8 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Oilers created the better chances: 3.2 expected goals to 1.7, on 32 and 28 shots on goal.
EDM 3.2 xG · 32 shots
TOR 1.7 xG · 28 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.3 · 0.7
2nd
1.0 · 0.3
3rd
1.0 · 0.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Connor McDavid · 1st 03:49 · 1–0 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (15%)
2
David Kampf · 1st 12:15 · 1–1 · snap shot, a good chance (11%)
3
Connor McDavid · 1st 13:53 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
4
Zach Hyman · 1st 18:05 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
5
Kailer Yamamoto · 2nd 08:46 · 4–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
6
Klim Kostin · 2nd 17:12 · 5–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
7
Mitch Marner · 3rd 01:08 · 5–2 · snap shot, a good chance (10%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Oilers win 76.
EDM 76%TOR 24%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Oilers shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Connor McDavid · 1st 03:49 · PP · 1–0
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (15%)
2
David Kampf · 1st 12:15 · 1–1
Snap shot, a good chance (11%)
3
Connor McDavid · 1st 13:53 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
4
Zach Hyman · 1st 18:05 · GWG · 3–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
5
Kailer Yamamoto · 2nd 08:46 · 4–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
6
Klim Kostin · 2nd 17:12 · 5–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
7
Mitch Marner · 3rd 01:08 · PP · 5–2
Snap shot, a good chance (10%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
26/28 saves · 2 GA · 1.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
27/32 saves · 5 GA · 3.2 xGA
Allowed 1.8 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
