Edmonton Oilers
EDM · 6-3
3–2
FinalW
Vancouver Canucks
VAN · 6-4
1ST2ND3RDT
EDM
1811418330
VAN
040928221
goals · shots on goal
Game 4 — the series is tied 2–2
EDM 6-3 · VAN 6-4 · Game 4 — the series is tied 2–2
Oilers beat the Canucks
The Oilers earned it: 3.7 expected goals to 2.0, and a 3–2 win to show for it. Bouchard's winner came with 0:39 left.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Oilers created the better chances: 3.7 expected goals to 2.0, on 30 and 21 shots on goal.
EDM 3.7 xG · 30 shots
VAN 2.0 xG · 21 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st · the swing
1.6 · 0.7
2nd
1.1 · 0.4
3rd
1.1 · 1.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Leon Draisaitl · 1st 11:10 · 1–0 · snap shot, a good chance (15%)
2
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · 2nd 19:20 · 2–0 · snap shot, a good chance (11%)
3
Conor Garland · 3rd 06:54 · 2–1 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
4
Dakota Joshua · 3rd 18:19 · 2–2 · deflected shot, a great chance (28%)
5
Evan Bouchard · 3rd 19:21 · 3–2 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Oilers win 76.
EDM 76%VAN 24%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Leon Draisaitl · 1st 11:10 · PP · 1–0
Snap shot, a good chance (15%)
2
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · 2nd 19:20 · 2–0
Snap shot, a good chance (11%)
3
Conor Garland · 3rd 06:54 · 2–1
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
4
Dakota Joshua · 3rd 18:19 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 2–2
Deflected shot, a great chance (28%)
5
Evan Bouchard · 3rd 19:21 · GWG · 3–2
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
19/21 saves · 2 GA · 2.0 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
27/30 saves · 3 GA · 3.7 xGA
Stopped 0.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.