EDM
3–2
BUF
Final · W
Edmonton Oilers
EDM · 31-15-3
3–2
FinalW
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 18-26-5
1ST2ND3RDT
EDM
11211517334
BUF
15117019241
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Oilers lead the season series 1–0
EDM 31-15-3 · BUF 18-26-5 · First meeting this season — the Oilers lead the season series 1–0
Oilers beat the Sabres
The Oilers were outchanced (4.6 to 3.3 expected goals) but won 3–2 anyway. Stuart Skinner stopped 2.6 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Sabres created the better chances: 4.6 expected goals to 3.3, on 41 and 34 shots on goal.
EDM 3.3 xG · 34 shots
BUF 4.6 xG · 41 shots
0
1
2
3
4
5
1st
1.6 · 0.6
2nd
1.2 · 2.3
3rd · the swing
0.5 · 1.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Alex Tuch · 1st 16:28 · 0–1 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
2
· 1st 16:45 · 1–1 · snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (26%)
3
Jiri Kulich · 2nd 07:46 · 1–2 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
4
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · 2nd 13:20 · 2–2 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
5
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · 3rd 08:59 · 3–2 · snap shot, a good chance (16%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Oilers win 33.
EDM 33%BUF 67%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Oilers shoot this way
Sabres shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Alex Tuch · 1st 16:28 · 0–1
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
2
· 1st 16:45 · 1–1
Snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (26%)
3
Jiri Kulich · 2nd 07:46 · 1–2
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
4
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · 2nd 13:20 · 2–2
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
5
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · 3rd 08:59 · GWG · 3–2
Snap shot, a good chance (16%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
39/41 saves · 2 GA · 4.6 xGA
Stopped 2.6 more goals than an average goalie would have.
31/34 saves · 3 GA · 3.3 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
