EDM
6–1
DAL
Final · W
Edmonton Oilers
EDM · 10-4
6–1
FinalW
Dallas Stars
DAL · 9-7
1ST2ND3RDT
EDM
2111736624
DAL
0912104134
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Oilers lead the series 2–1
EDM 10-4 · DAL 9-7 · Game 3 — the Oilers lead the series 2–1
Oilers beat the Stars
The Oilers were outchanced (3.3 to 2.5 expected goals) but won 6–1 anyway. Jake Oettinger allowed 3.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Stars created the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 2.5, on 34 and 24 shots on goal.
EDM 2.5 xG · 24 shots
DAL 3.3 xG · 34 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.8 · 0.9
2nd · the swing
0.7 · 2.1
3rd
1.1 · 0.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Evan Bouchard · 1st 14:02 · 1–0 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
2
Connor McDavid · 1st 14:38 · 2–0 · snap shot, a good chance (19%)
3
Jason Robertson · 2nd 15:35 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (19%)
4
Connor McDavid · 2nd 19:41 · 3–1 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
5
Zach Hyman · 3rd 03:25 · 4–1 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
6
Zach Hyman · 3rd 12:06 · 5–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
7
John Klingberg · 3rd 17:40 · 6–1 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Oilers win 37.
EDM 37%DAL 63%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Oilers shoot this way
Stars shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Evan Bouchard · 1st 14:02 · 1–0
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
2
Connor McDavid · 1st 14:38 · GWG · 2–0
Snap shot, a good chance (19%)
3
Jason Robertson · 2nd 15:35 · 2–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (19%)
4
Connor McDavid · 2nd 19:41 · 3–1
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
5
Zach Hyman · 3rd 03:25 · 4–1
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
6
Zach Hyman · 3rd 12:06 · 5–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
7
John Klingberg · 3rd 17:40 · PP · 6–1
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
33/34 saves · 1 GA · 3.3 xGA
Stopped 2.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.
18/24 saves · 6 GA · 2.5 xGA
Allowed 3.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
