EDM
2–5
FLA
Final · L
Edmonton Oilers
EDM · 14-7
2–5
FinalL
Florida Panthers
FLA · 15-7
1ST2ND3RDT
EDM
0308210221
FLA
280536519
goals · shots on goal
Game 5 — the Oilers trail the series 2–3
EDM 14-7 · FLA 15-7 · Game 5 — the Oilers trail the series 2–3
Oilers fell to the Panthers
Chances were even (1.6 to 2.1 expected goals); the Oilers lost 2–5. Calvin Pickard allowed 1.9 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 1.6 expected goals to 2.1, on 21 and 19 shots on goal.
EDM 1.6 xG · 21 shots
FLA 2.1 xG · 19 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.4 · 1.0
2nd
0.6 · 0.4
3rd
0.6 · 0.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Brad Marchand · 1st 09:12 · 0–1 · snap shot, a good chance (14%)
2
Sam Bennett · 1st 18:06 · 0–2 · snap shot, a good chance (12%)
3
Brad Marchand · 3rd 05:12 · 0–3 · backhand shot, a great chance (28%)
4
Connor McDavid · 3rd 07:24 · 1–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
5
Sam Reinhart · 3rd 08:10 · 1–4 · snap shot, a good chance (12%)
6
Corey Perry · 3rd 16:47 · 2–4 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
7
Eetu Luostarinen · 3rd 18:41 · 2–5 · snap shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Oilers win 42.
EDM 42%FLA 58%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Oilers shoot this way
Panthers shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Brad Marchand · 1st 09:12 · 0–1
Snap shot, a good chance (14%)
2
Sam Bennett · 1st 18:06 · 0–2
Snap shot, a good chance (12%)
3
Brad Marchand · 3rd 05:12 · GWG · 0–3
Backhand shot, a great chance (28%)
4
Connor McDavid · 3rd 07:24 · 1–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
5
Sam Reinhart · 3rd 08:10 · 1–4
Snap shot, a good chance (12%)
6
Corey Perry · 3rd 16:47 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 2–4
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
7
Eetu Luostarinen · 3rd 18:41 · EN · 2–5
Snap shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
No goals or penalties.
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
14/18 saves · 4 GA · 2.1 xGA
Allowed 1.9 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
19/21 saves · 2 GA · 1.6 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
