Florida Panthers
FLA · 4-3
1–4
FinalL
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 5-3
1ST2ND3RDT
FLA
111013010134
TBL
08110318436
goals · shots on goal
Game 1 — the Panthers trail the series 0–1
FLA 4-3 · TBL 5-3 · Game 1 — the Panthers trail the series 0–1
Panthers fell to the Lightning
The Panthers were outchanced (4.4 to 3.5 expected goals) and lost 1–4. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 2.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 4.4 expected goals to 3.5, on 36 and 34 shots on goal.
FLA 3.5 xG · 34 shots
TBL 4.4 xG · 36 shots
0
1
2
3
4
5
1st
1.0 · 0.5
2nd
1.4 · 0.8
3rd · the swing
1.1 · 3.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Anthony Duclair · 1st 14:01 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
2
Corey Perry · 2nd 16:22 · 1–1 · snap shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · 3rd 03:35 · 1–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (26%)
4
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 15:54 · 1–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
5
Ross Colton · 3rd 17:44 · 1–4 · snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (33%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Panthers win 37.
FLA 37%TBL 63%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Anthony Duclair · 1st 14:01 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
2
Corey Perry · 2nd 16:22 · PP · 1–1
Snap shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · 3rd 03:35 · GWG · 1–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (26%)
4
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 15:54 · PP · 1–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
5
Ross Colton · 3rd 17:44 · PP · 1–4
Snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (33%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
32/36 saves · 4 GA · 4.4 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
33/34 saves · 1 GA · 3.5 xGA
Stopped 2.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.