FLA
3–2
TOR
Final / OT · W
Florida Panthers
FLA · 7-3
3–2
Final / OTW
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 4-5
1ST2ND3RDOTT
FLA
072140711329
TOR
141901100224
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Panthers lead the series 3–0
FLA 7-3 · TOR 4-5 · Game 3 — the Panthers lead the series 3–0
Panthers beat the Maple Leafs
The Panthers earned it: 3.3 expected goals to 2.4, and they won it in overtime on Reinhart's goal. Ilya Samsonov stopped 1.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Panthers created the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 2.4, on 29 and 24 shots on goal.
FLA 3.3 xG · 29 shots
TOR 2.4 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.8 · 0.5
2nd
1.5 · 1.0
3rd
0.8 · 1.0
OT
0.1 · 0.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Sam Lafferty · 1st 02:26 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Anthony Duclair · 2nd 02:36 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a great chance (25%)
3
Erik Gustafsson · 2nd 07:32 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
4
Carter Verhaeghe · 2nd 12:28 · 2–2 · deflected shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
5
Sam Reinhart · OT 03:02 · 3–2 · wrap around shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Panthers win 63.
FLA 63%TOR 37%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Panthers shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Sam Lafferty · 1st 02:26 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Anthony Duclair · 2nd 02:36 · PP · 1–1
Wrist shot, a great chance (25%)
3
Erik Gustafsson · 2nd 07:32 · 1–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
4
Carter Verhaeghe · 2nd 12:28 · 2–2
Deflected shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
5
Sam Reinhart · OT 03:02 · GWG · 3–2
Wrap around shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No goals or penalties.
Overtime
5
Anton Lundell, Aaron Ekblad · wrap around shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3–2
No penalties
Goaltending
22/24 saves · 2 GA · 2.4 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
18/21 saves · 3 GA · 2.3 xGA
Allowed 0.7 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
