Florida Panthers
FLA · 12-4
4–3
FinalW
Carolina Hurricanes
CAR · 8-7
1ST2ND3RDT
FLA
291916424
CAR
19117113339
goals · shots on goal
Game 4 — the Panthers lead the series 4–0
FLA 12-4 · CAR 8-7 · Game 4 — the Panthers lead the series 4–0
Panthers beat the Hurricanes
Chances were even (3.6 to 3.5 expected goals); the Panthers won 4–3. Tkachuk's winner came with 0:05 left. The Panthers scored 2 power-play goals.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 3.6 expected goals to 3.5, on 24 and 39 shots on goal.
FLA 3.6 xG · 24 shots
CAR 3.5 xG · 39 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.1 · 0.6
2nd
1.7 · 2.0
3rd
0.8 · 0.9
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Anthony Duclair · 1st 00:41 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
2
Matthew Tkachuk · 1st 10:23 · 2–0 · snap shot, a good chance (16%)
3
Paul Stastny · 1st 13:03 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (23%)
4
Teuvo Teravainen · 2nd 02:51 · 2–2 · slap shot, a good chance (15%)
5
Ryan Lomberg · 2nd 09:49 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
6
Jesper Fast · 3rd 16:38 · 3–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
7
Matthew Tkachuk · 3rd 19:55 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Panthers win 51.
FLA 51%CAR 49%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Anthony Duclair · 1st 00:41 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
2
Matthew Tkachuk · 1st 10:23 · PP · 2–0
Snap shot, a good chance (16%)
3
Paul Stastny · 1st 13:03 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (23%)
4
Teuvo Teravainen · 2nd 02:51 · 2–2
Slap shot, a good chance (15%)
5
Ryan Lomberg · 2nd 09:49 · 3–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
6
Jesper Fast · 3rd 16:38 · 3–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
7
Matthew Tkachuk · 3rd 19:55 · PP · GWG · 4–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
36/39 saves · 3 GA · 3.5 xGA
Stopped 0.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.
20/24 saves · 4 GA · 3.6 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.