Florida Panthers
FLA · 1-0
3–2
FinalW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 0-1
1ST2ND3RDT
FLA
1906213328
TBL
160419219
goals · shots on goal
Game 1 — the Panthers lead the series 1–0
FLA 1-0 · TBL 0-1 · Game 1 — the Panthers lead the series 1–0
Panthers beat the Lightning
The Panthers earned it: 3.1 expected goals to 2.3, and a 3–2 win to show for it. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 1.1 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Panthers created the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 2.3, on 28 and 19 shots on goal.
FLA 3.1 xG · 28 shots
TBL 2.3 xG · 19 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.4 · 0.8
2nd
0.5 · 0.6
3rd
1.2 · 0.9
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Sam Reinhart · 1st 06:17 · 1–0 · tip in shot, a good chance (18%)
2
Brandon Hagel · 1st 16:04 · 1–1 · snap shot on a rebound, a good chance (23%)
3
Carter Verhaeghe · 3rd 00:58 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (18%)
4
Matthew Tkachuk · 3rd 17:55 · 3–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
5
Steven Stamkos · 3rd 19:50 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Panthers win 62.
FLA 62%TBL 38%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Sam Reinhart · 1st 06:17 · 1–0
Tip in shot, a good chance (18%)
2
Brandon Hagel · 1st 16:04 · 1–1
Snap shot on a rebound, a good chance (23%)
3
Carter Verhaeghe · 3rd 00:58 · PP · 2–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (18%)
4
Matthew Tkachuk · 3rd 17:55 · EN · GWG · 3–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
5
Steven Stamkos · 3rd 19:50 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 3–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
1st period
2nd period
No goals or penalties.
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
17/19 saves · 2 GA · 2.3 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
25/27 saves · 2 GA · 3.1 xGA
Stopped 1.1 more goals than an average goalie would have.