FLA
6–1
TBL
Final · W
Florida Panthers
FLA · 4-1
6–1
FinalW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 1-4
1ST2ND3RDT
FLA
0722349639
TBL
07112013132
goals · shots on goal
Game 5 — the Panthers lead the series 4–1
FLA 4-1 · TBL 1-4 · Game 5 — the Panthers lead the series 4–1
Panthers beat the Lightning
The Panthers earned it: 3.4 expected goals to 2.4, and a 6–1 win to show for it. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 1.4 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Panthers created the better chances: 3.4 expected goals to 2.4, on 39 and 32 shots on goal.
FLA 3.4 xG · 39 shots
TBL 2.4 xG · 32 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.5 · 0.6
2nd · the swing
2.2 · 1.3
3rd
0.7 · 0.5
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Carter Verhaeghe · 2nd 00:45 · 1–0 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (11%)
2
Aleksander Barkov · 2nd 12:38 · 2–0 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (10%)
3
Victor Hedman · 2nd 13:37 · 2–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Aleksander Barkov · 3rd 11:06 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
5
Evan Rodrigues · 3rd 14:16 · 4–1 · slap shot, a good chance (13%)
6
Carter Verhaeghe · 3rd 16:03 · 5–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
7
Niko Mikkola · 3rd 18:50 · 6–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Panthers win 66.
FLA 66%TBL 34%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Panthers shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Carter Verhaeghe · 2nd 00:45 · 1–0
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (11%)
2
Aleksander Barkov · 2nd 12:38 · SH · GWG · 2–0
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (10%)
3
Victor Hedman · 2nd 13:37 · 2–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Aleksander Barkov · 3rd 11:06 · 3–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
5
Evan Rodrigues · 3rd 14:16 · 4–1
Slap shot, a good chance (13%)
6
Carter Verhaeghe · 3rd 16:03 · EN · 5–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
7
Niko Mikkola · 3rd 18:50 · EN · 6–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
No goals or penalties.
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
31/32 saves · 1 GA · 2.4 xGA
Stopped 1.4 more goals than an average goalie would have.
33/37 saves · 4 GA · 3.4 xGA
Allowed 0.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
