FLA
1–5
TBL
Final · L
Florida Panthers
FLA · 2-1
1–5
FinalL
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 1-2
1ST2ND3RDT
FLA
11201309134
TBL
1511136522
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Panthers lead the series 2–1
FLA 2-1 · TBL 1-2 · Game 3 — the Panthers lead the series 2–1
Panthers fell to the Lightning
The Panthers created the better chances (2.8 to 2.1 expected goals) — and lost 1–5. Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 1.9 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Panthers created the better chances: 2.8 expected goals to 2.1, on 34 and 22 shots on goal.
FLA 2.8 xG · 34 shots
TBL 2.1 xG · 22 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.1 · 0.6
2nd
0.9 · 1.0
3rd
0.7 · 0.5
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Matthew Tkachuk · 1st 02:43 · 1–0 · backhand shot, a good chance (15%)
2
Brayden Point · 1st 17:15 · 1–1 · deflected shot, a great chance (38%)
3
Nick Paul · 2nd 13:17 · 1–2 · snap shot, a good chance (17%)
4
Jake Guentzel · 3rd 00:21 · 1–3 · bat shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Luke Glendening · 3rd 14:19 · 1–4 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
6
Anthony Cirelli · 3rd 15:00 · 1–5 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Panthers win 62.
FLA 62%TBL 38%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Panthers shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Matthew Tkachuk · 1st 02:43 · 1–0
Backhand shot, a good chance (15%)
2
Brayden Point · 1st 17:15 · 1–1
Deflected shot, a great chance (38%)
3
Nick Paul · 2nd 13:17 · GWG · 1–2
Snap shot, a good chance (17%)
4
Jake Guentzel · 3rd 00:21 · 1–3
Bat shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Luke Glendening · 3rd 14:19 · 1–4
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
6
Anthony Cirelli · 3rd 15:00 · EN · 1–5
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
17/21 saves · 4 GA · 2.1 xGA
Allowed 1.9 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
33/34 saves · 1 GA · 2.8 xGA
Stopped 1.8 more goals than an average goalie would have.
