FLA
4–2
TBL
Final · W
Florida Panthers
FLA · 3-1
4–2
FinalW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 1-3
1ST2ND3RDT
FLA
061938423
TBL
062608220
goals · shots on goal
Game 4 — the Panthers lead the series 3–1
FLA 3-1 · TBL 1-3 · Game 4 — the Panthers lead the series 3–1
Panthers beat the Lightning
Chances were even (2.1 to 1.7 expected goals); the Panthers won 4–2. An empty-net goal padded the final score; it was a one-goal game until then.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.1 expected goals to 1.7, on 23 and 20 shots on goal.
FLA 2.1 xG · 23 shots
TBL 1.7 xG · 20 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.5 · 0.3
2nd
1.2 · 0.6
3rd
0.4 · 0.9
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Anton Lundell · 2nd 09:06 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
2
Mitchell Chaffee · 2nd 12:21 · 1–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (14%)
3
Erik Cernak · 2nd 12:32 · 1–2 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
4
Aaron Ekblad · 3rd 16:13 · 2–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (22%)
5
Seth Jones · 3rd 16:24 · 3–2 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
6
Carter Verhaeghe · 3rd 18:20 · 4–2 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Panthers win 58.
FLA 58%TBL 42%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Panthers shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Anton Lundell · 2nd 09:06 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
2
Mitchell Chaffee · 2nd 12:21 · 1–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (14%)
3
Erik Cernak · 2nd 12:32 · 1–2
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
4
Aaron Ekblad · 3rd 16:13 · 2–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (22%)
5
Seth Jones · 3rd 16:24 · GWG · 3–2
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
6
Carter Verhaeghe · 3rd 18:20 · EN · 4–2
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
No goals or penalties.
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
18/20 saves · 2 GA · 1.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
19/22 saves · 3 GA · 2.1 xGA
Allowed 0.9 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
