NYI
5–1
CAR
Final · W
New York Islanders
NYI · 1-2
5–1
FinalW
Carolina Hurricanes
CAR · 2-1
1ST2ND3RDT
NYI
07113417537
CAR
0151907131
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Islanders trail the series 1–2
NYI 1-2 · CAR 2-1 · Game 3 — the Islanders trail the series 1–2
Islanders beat the Hurricanes
The Islanders earned it: 3.8 expected goals to 2.7, and a 5–1 win to show for it. Ilya Sorokin stopped 1.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Islanders created the better chances: 3.8 expected goals to 2.7, on 37 and 31 shots on goal.
NYI 3.8 xG · 37 shots
CAR 2.7 xG · 31 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
0.7 · 1.4
2nd
1.3 · 1.0
3rd · the swing
1.8 · 0.3
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Casey Cizikas · 2nd 12:49 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Jesper Fast · 2nd 16:56 · 1–1 · tip in shot off the rush, a good chance (21%)
3
Kyle Palmieri · 3rd 16:09 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (10%)
4
Matt Martin · 3rd 16:53 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
5
Scott Mayfield · 3rd 18:11 · 4–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
6
Anders Lee · 3rd 18:27 · 5–1 · deflected shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Islanders win 67.
NYI 67%CAR 33%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Islanders shoot this way
Hurricanes shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Casey Cizikas · 2nd 12:49 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Jesper Fast · 2nd 16:56 · SH · 1–1
Tip in shot off the rush, a good chance (21%)
3
Kyle Palmieri · 3rd 16:09 · PP · GWG · 2–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (10%)
4
Matt Martin · 3rd 16:53 · 3–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
5
Scott Mayfield · 3rd 18:11 · EN · 4–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
6
Anders Lee · 3rd 18:27 · 5–1
Deflected shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
1st period
No goals or penalties.
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
30/31 saves · 1 GA · 2.7 xGA
Stopped 1.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.
32/36 saves · 4 GA · 3.8 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
