Ottawa Senators
OTT · 6-9-1
4–1
FinalW
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 7-10-0
1ST2ND3RDT
OTT
114114212440
BUF
01111009130
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
OTT 6-9-1 · BUF 7-10-0 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Senators beat the Sabres
The Senators earned it: 4.0 expected goals to 2.8, and a 4–1 win to show for it. Anton Forsberg stopped 1.8 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Senators created the better chances: 4.0 expected goals to 2.8, on 40 and 30 shots on goal.
OTT 4.0 xG · 40 shots
BUF 2.8 xG · 30 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.6 · 0.9
2nd
1.0 · 0.9
3rd
1.3 · 0.9
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
· 1st 09:45 · 1–0 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
2
Tage Thompson · 2nd 06:41 · 1–1 · slap shot, a good chance (13%)
3
Brady Tkachuk · 2nd 09:57 · 2–1 · backhand shot, a good chance (17%)
4
Alex DeBrincat · 3rd 14:21 · 3–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (19%)
5
Tim Stützle · 3rd 19:19 · 4–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Senators win 68.
OTT 68%BUF 32%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
· 1st 09:45 · 1–0
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
2
Tage Thompson · 2nd 06:41 · PP · 1–1
Slap shot, a good chance (13%)
3
Brady Tkachuk · 2nd 09:57 · PP · GWG · 2–1
Backhand shot, a good chance (17%)
4
Alex DeBrincat · 3rd 14:21 · 3–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (19%)
5
Tim Stützle · 3rd 19:19 · EN · 4–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
29/30 saves · 1 GA · 2.8 xGA
Stopped 1.8 more goals than an average goalie would have.
22/24 saves · 2 GA · 2.2 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.