OTT
4–3
CGY
Final / OT · W
Ottawa Senators
OTT · 25-24-3
4–3
Final / OTW
Calgary Flames
CGY · 25-18-11
1ST2ND3RDOTT
OTT
150621212425
CGY
1111161901337
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Senators lead the season series 1–0
OTT 25-24-3 · CGY 25-18-11 · First meeting this season — the Senators lead the season series 1–0
Senators beat the Flames
Down 1–3 in the 3rd period, the Senators erased the deficit with three unanswered goals — DeBrincat's equalizer with 1:28 left and the goalie pulled — and won it in overtime on Stützle's goal. Jacob Markstrom allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.8 expected goals to 3.1, on 25 and 37 shots on goal.
OTT 2.8 xG · 25 shots
CGY 3.1 xG · 37 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.7 · 1.2
2nd
1.0 · 0.9
3rd
0.9 · 0.6
OT
0.3 · 0.5
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Brady Tkachuk · 1st 06:10 · 1–0 · snap shot, a good chance (16%)
2
Dillon Dube · 1st 14:47 · 1–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (15%)
3
Tyler Toffoli · 2nd 05:55 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
4
Dillon Dube · 3rd 06:40 · 1–3 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Drake Batherson · 3rd 17:46 · 2–3 · backhand shot on a rebound, a good chance (11%)
6
Alex DeBrincat · 3rd 18:32 · 3–3 · slap shot, a good chance (11%)
7
Tim Stützle · OT 01:55 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Senators win 45.
OTT 45%CGY 55%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Senators shoot this way
Flames shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Brady Tkachuk · 1st 06:10 · 1–0
Snap shot, a good chance (16%)
2
Dillon Dube · 1st 14:47 · PP · 1–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (15%)
3
Tyler Toffoli · 2nd 05:55 · 1–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
4
Dillon Dube · 3rd 06:40 · 1–3
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Drake Batherson · 3rd 17:46 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 2–3
Backhand shot on a rebound, a good chance (11%)
6
Alex DeBrincat · 3rd 18:32 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 3–3
Slap shot, a good chance (11%)
7
Tim Stützle · OT 01:55 · GWG · 4–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
34/37 saves · 3 GA · 3.1 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
21/25 saves · 4 GA · 2.8 xGA
Allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
