OTT
4–5
TOR
Final / SO · L
Ottawa Senators
OTT · 33-31-5
4–5
Final / SOL
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 42-18-9
1ST2ND3RDOTSOT
OTT
119118212030452
TOR
1921117021529
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Senators trail the season series 1–2
OTT 33-31-5 · TOR 42-18-9 · Meeting 3 this season — the Senators trail the season series 1–2
Senators fell to the Maple Leafs
The Senators created the better chances (5.0 to 2.8 expected goals) — and lost it in a shootout. Mads Sogaard allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Senators created the better chances: 5.0 expected goals to 2.8, on 52 and 29 shots on goal.
OTT 5.0 xG · 52 shots
TOR 2.8 xG · 29 shots
0
1
2
3
4
5
1st
1.4 · 0.7
2nd
1.1 · 1.2
3rd · the swing
1.6 · 0.5
OT
0.9 · 0.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Jake McCabe · 1st 03:11 · 0–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (17%)
2
Julien Gauthier · 1st 14:28 · 1–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
3
Tim Stützle · 2nd 05:32 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
4
Mitch Marner · 2nd 06:09 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
5
Calle Jarnkrok · 2nd 09:16 · 2–3 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Calle Jarnkrok · 3rd 09:39 · 2–4 · wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
7
Brady Tkachuk · 3rd 10:42 · 3–4 · wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
8
Brady Tkachuk · 3rd 19:49 · 4–4 · wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Senators win 78.
OTT 78%TOR 22%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 0 penalties← Senators shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Jake McCabe · 1st 03:11 · 0–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (17%)
2
Julien Gauthier · 1st 14:28 · 1–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
3
Tim Stützle · 2nd 05:32 · SH · 2–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
4
Mitch Marner · 2nd 06:09 · PP · 2–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
5
Calle Jarnkrok · 2nd 09:16 · 2–3
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Calle Jarnkrok · 3rd 09:39 · 2–4
Wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
7
Brady Tkachuk · 3rd 10:42 · 3–4
Wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
8
Brady Tkachuk · 3rd 19:49 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 4–4
Wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
1st period
2nd period
5
Auston Matthews, Timothy Liljegren · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2–3
3rd period
No penalties
Shootout
Decided in a shootout — Maple Leafs
Goaltending
25/29 saves · 4 GA · 2.8 xGA
Allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
48/52 saves · 4 GA · 5.0 xGA
Stopped 1.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
