OTT
5–2
TBL
Final · W
Ottawa Senators
OTT · 2-1-0
5–2
FinalW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 1-2-0
1ST2ND3RDT
OTT
11721526538
TBL
03210011224
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Senators lead the season series 1–0
OTT 2-1-0 · TBL 1-2-0 · First meeting this season — the Senators lead the season series 1–0
Senators beat the Lightning
Chances were even (2.1 to 2.0 expected goals); the Senators won 5–2. Matt Tomkins allowed 1.9 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.1 expected goals to 2.0, on 38 and 24 shots on goal.
OTT 2.1 xG · 38 shots
TBL 2.0 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.9 · 0.6
2nd
0.8 · 0.8
3rd
0.4 · 0.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Vladimir Tarasenko · 1st 07:02 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
2
Anthony Cirelli · 2nd 01:00 · 1–1 · backhand shot, a great chance (26%)
3
Brady Tkachuk · 2nd 08:48 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
4
Tanner Jeannot · 2nd 13:00 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (23%)
5
Mathieu Joseph · 2nd 19:01 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
6
Brady Tkachuk · 3rd 12:53 · 4–2 · backhand shot, a good chance (24%)
7
Tim Stützle · 3rd 17:17 · 5–2 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Senators win 52.
OTT 52%TBL 48%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Senators shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Vladimir Tarasenko · 1st 07:02 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
2
Anthony Cirelli · 2nd 01:00 · 1–1
Backhand shot, a great chance (26%)
3
Brady Tkachuk · 2nd 08:48 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
4
Tanner Jeannot · 2nd 13:00 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (23%)
5
Mathieu Joseph · 2nd 19:01 · GWG · 3–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
6
Brady Tkachuk · 3rd 12:53 · 4–2
Backhand shot, a good chance (24%)
7
Tim Stützle · 3rd 17:17 · EN · 5–2
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
22/24 saves · 2 GA · 2.0 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
33/37 saves · 4 GA · 2.1 xGA
Allowed 1.9 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
