OTT
2–1
TBL
Final · W
Ottawa Senators
OTT · 40-29-6
2–1
FinalW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 44-26-5
1ST2ND3RDT
OTT
181803219
TBL
01318011132
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 4 this season — the season series is tied 2–2
OTT 40-29-6 · TBL 44-26-5 · Meeting 4 this season — the season series is tied 2–2
Senators beat the Lightning
The Senators were outchanced (3.7 to 1.8 expected goals) but won 2–1 anyway. Linus Ullmark stopped 2.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 3.7 expected goals to 1.8, on 32 and 19 shots on goal.
OTT 1.8 xG · 19 shots
TBL 3.7 xG · 32 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
0.8 · 1.4
2nd
0.6 · 1.0
3rd · the swing
0.4 · 1.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Shane Pinto · 1st 13:45 · 1–0 · snap shot, a good chance (19%)
2
Jake Sanderson · 2nd 05:17 · 2–0 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
3
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 07:00 · 2–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (39%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Senators win 20.
OTT 20%TBL 80%
Goals and penalties
3 goals · 0 penalties← Senators shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Shane Pinto · 1st 13:45 · 1–0
Snap shot, a good chance (19%)
2
Jake Sanderson · 2nd 05:17 · PP · GWG · 2–0
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
3
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 07:00 · 2–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (39%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No goals or penalties.
No penalties
Goaltending
31/32 saves · 1 GA · 3.7 xGA
Stopped 2.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.
17/19 saves · 2 GA · 1.8 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
