OTT
2–3
TOR
Final / OT · L
Ottawa Senators
OTT · 0-3
2–3
Final / OTL
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 3-0
1ST2ND3RDOTT
OTT
081101200220
TOR
07161512320
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Senators trail the series 0–3
OTT 0-3 · TOR 3-0 · Game 3 — the Senators trail the series 0–3
Senators fell to the Maple Leafs
Chances were even (2.3 to 2.0 expected goals); the Senators lost it in overtime on Benoit's goal. Linus Ullmark allowed 1.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.3 expected goals to 2.0, on 20 and 20 shots on goal.
OTT 2.3 xG · 20 shots
TOR 2.0 xG · 20 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.5 · 0.9
2nd · the swing
1.5 · 0.6
3rd
0.2 · 0.4
OT
0.0 · 0.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Claude Giroux · 2nd 01:38 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
2
Matthew Knies · 2nd 08:31 · 1–1 · backhand shot, a good chance (23%)
3
Auston Matthews · 3rd 00:32 · 1–2 · snap shot, a good chance (15%)
4
Brady Tkachuk · 3rd 11:22 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
5
Simon Benoit · OT 01:19 · 2–3 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Senators win 55.
OTT 55%TOR 45%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Senators shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Claude Giroux · 2nd 01:38 · PP · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
2
Matthew Knies · 2nd 08:31 · PP · 1–1
Backhand shot, a good chance (23%)
3
Auston Matthews · 3rd 00:32 · 1–2
Snap shot, a good chance (15%)
4
Brady Tkachuk · 3rd 11:22 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
5
Simon Benoit · OT 01:19 · GWG · 2–3
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
1st period
No goals or penalties.
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
17/20 saves · 3 GA · 2.0 xGA
Allowed 1.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
18/20 saves · 2 GA · 2.3 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
