OTT
4–3
TOR
Final / OT · W
Ottawa Senators
OTT · 1-3
4–3
Final / OTW
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 3-1
1ST2ND3RDOTT
OTT
210011317421
TOR
19191808334
goals · shots on goal
Game 4 — the Senators trail the series 1–3
OTT 1-3 · TOR 3-1 · Game 4 — the Senators trail the series 1–3
Senators beat the Maple Leafs
The Senators were outchanced (3.4 to 2.1 expected goals) but won it in overtime on Sanderson's goal anyway. Anthony Stolarz allowed 1.9 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Maple Leafs created the better chances: 3.4 expected goals to 2.1, on 34 and 21 shots on goal.
OTT 2.1 xG · 21 shots
TOR 3.4 xG · 34 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.1 · 0.3
2nd
0.3 · 0.8
3rd
0.3 · 0.9
OT · the swing
0.4 · 1.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Tim Stützle · 1st 09:03 · 1–0 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Shane Pinto · 1st 14:11 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
3
John Tavares · 1st 19:05 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
4
Matthew Knies · 2nd 10:12 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (24%)
5
David Perron · 3rd 07:32 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Oliver Ekman-Larsson · 3rd 14:31 · 3–3 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
7
Jake Sanderson · OT 17:42 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Senators win 29.
OTT 29%TOR 71%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Senators shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Tim Stützle · 1st 09:03 · PP · 1–0
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Shane Pinto · 1st 14:11 · SH · 2–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
3
John Tavares · 1st 19:05 · 2–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
4
Matthew Knies · 2nd 10:12 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (24%)
5
David Perron · 3rd 07:32 · 3–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Oliver Ekman-Larsson · 3rd 14:31 · 3–3
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
7
Jake Sanderson · OT 17:42 · GWG · 4–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
7
Unassisted · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
4–3
No penalties
Goaltending
31/34 saves · 3 GA · 3.4 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
17/21 saves · 4 GA · 2.1 xGA
Allowed 1.9 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
