OTT
2–4
TOR
Final · L
Ottawa Senators
OTT · 2-4
2–4
FinalL
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 4-2
1ST2ND3RDT
OTT
0318112223
TOR
171927423
goals · shots on goal
Game 6 — the Senators trail the series 2–4
OTT 2-4 · TOR 4-2 · Game 6 — the Senators trail the series 2–4
Senators fell to the Maple Leafs
Chances were even (2.0 to 1.9 expected goals); the Senators lost 2–4. Linus Ullmark allowed 1.1 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.0 expected goals to 1.9, on 23 and 23 shots on goal.
OTT 2.0 xG · 23 shots
TOR 1.9 xG · 23 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.5 · 0.6
2nd
0.7 · 0.8
3rd
0.8 · 0.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Auston Matthews · 1st 18:50 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
2
William Nylander · 2nd 00:43 · 0–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Brady Tkachuk · 2nd 07:28 · 1–2 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
4
David Perron · 3rd 12:40 · 2–2 · backhand shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
5
Max Pacioretty · 3rd 14:21 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
6
William Nylander · 3rd 19:41 · 2–4 · backhand shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Senators win 51.
OTT 51%TOR 49%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Senators shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Auston Matthews · 1st 18:50 · PP · 0–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
2
William Nylander · 2nd 00:43 · 0–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Brady Tkachuk · 2nd 07:28 · 1–2
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
4
David Perron · 3rd 12:40 · 2–2
Backhand shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
5
Max Pacioretty · 3rd 14:21 · GWG · 2–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
6
William Nylander · 3rd 19:41 · EN · 2–4
Backhand shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
19/22 saves · 3 GA · 1.9 xGA
Allowed 1.1 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
21/23 saves · 2 GA · 2.0 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
