Pittsburgh Penguins
PIT · 11-8-3
1–4
FinalL
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 13-5-5
1ST2ND3RDT
PIT
05010111126
TOR
117210114441
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Penguins trail the season series 1–2
PIT 11-8-3 · TOR 13-5-5 · Meeting 3 this season — the Penguins trail the season series 1–2
Penguins fell to the Maple Leafs
The Penguins were outchanced (4.1 to 2.6 expected goals) and lost 1–4. Erik Kallgren stopped 1.6 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Maple Leafs created the better chances: 4.1 expected goals to 2.6, on 41 and 26 shots on goal.
PIT 2.6 xG · 26 shots
TOR 4.1 xG · 41 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st · the swing
0.7 · 1.6
2nd
1.0 · 1.3
3rd
1.0 · 1.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Mitch Marner · 1st 00:40 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
2
Pontus Holmberg · 2nd 09:55 · 0–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
3
William Nylander · 2nd 10:50 · 0–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
4
Rickard Rakell · 3rd 11:38 · 1–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
5
Auston Matthews · 3rd 14:36 · 1–4 · wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Penguins win 29.
PIT 29%TOR 71%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Mitch Marner · 1st 00:40 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
2
Pontus Holmberg · 2nd 09:55 · GWG · 0–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
3
William Nylander · 2nd 10:50 · 0–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
4
Rickard Rakell · 3rd 11:38 · 1–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
5
Auston Matthews · 3rd 14:36 · 1–4
Wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
37/41 saves · 4 GA · 4.1 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
25/26 saves · 1 GA · 2.6 xGA
Stopped 1.6 more goals than an average goalie would have.