Pittsburgh Penguins
PIT · 10-10-0
3–2
FinalW
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 10-6-3
1ST2ND3RDT
PIT
11821403335
TOR
21506012233
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Penguins lead the season series 1–0
PIT 10-10-0 · TOR 10-6-3 · First meeting this season — the Penguins lead the season series 1–0
Penguins beat the Maple Leafs
The Penguins were outchanced (3.7 to 2.7 expected goals) but won 3–2 anyway. Tristan Jarry stopped 1.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Maple Leafs created the better chances: 3.7 expected goals to 2.7, on 33 and 35 shots on goal.
PIT 2.7 xG · 35 shots
TOR 3.7 xG · 33 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.1 · 1.8
2nd
1.5 · 0.5
3rd · the swing
0.2 · 1.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Tyler Bertuzzi · 1st 03:59 · 0–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (43%)
2
Jake Guentzel · 1st 04:27 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
3
Matthew Knies · 1st 07:48 · 1–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (23%)
4
Noel Acciari · 2nd 10:01 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
5
Erik Karlsson · 2nd 19:32 · 3–2 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Penguins win 36.
PIT 36%TOR 64%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Tyler Bertuzzi · 1st 03:59 · 0–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (43%)
2
Jake Guentzel · 1st 04:27 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
3
Matthew Knies · 1st 07:48 · 1–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (23%)
4
Noel Acciari · 2nd 10:01 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
5
Erik Karlsson · 2nd 19:32 · GWG · 3–2
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No goals or penalties.
No penalties
Goaltending
31/33 saves · 2 GA · 3.7 xGA
Stopped 1.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.
32/35 saves · 3 GA · 2.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.