PIT
4–2
BUF
Final · W
Pittsburgh Penguins
PIT · 11-6-5
4–2
FinalW
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 9-10-4
1ST2ND3RDT
PIT
130838419
BUF
0408219231
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Penguins lead the season series 1–0
PIT 11-6-5 · BUF 9-10-4 · First meeting this season — the Penguins lead the season series 1–0
Penguins beat the Sabres
The Penguins were outchanced (3.1 to 1.6 expected goals) but won 4–2 anyway. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 1.4 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Sabres created the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 1.6, on 31 and 19 shots on goal.
PIT 1.6 xG · 19 shots
BUF 3.1 xG · 31 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.4 · 0.4
2nd
0.7 · 1.0
3rd · the swing
0.5 · 1.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
· 1st 17:09 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
2
Jason Zucker · 3rd 07:20 · 1–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (11%)
3
Bryan Rust · 3rd 07:51 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
4
Kevin Hayes · 3rd 12:34 · 3–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
5
Jack Quinn · 3rd 15:42 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
6
Connor Dewar · 3rd 19:02 · 4–2 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Penguins win 26.
PIT 26%BUF 74%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 1 penalty← Penguins shoot this way
Sabres shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
· 1st 17:09 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
2
Jason Zucker · 3rd 07:20 · 1–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (11%)
3
Bryan Rust · 3rd 07:51 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
4
Kevin Hayes · 3rd 12:34 · GWG · 3–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
5
Jack Quinn · 3rd 15:42 · 3–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
6
Connor Dewar · 3rd 19:02 · EN · 4–2
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
08:57
Conor Timmins· Tripping
Conor Timmins· Tripping
Killed
Minor
2nd period
No goals or penalties.
3rd period
4
Erik Karlsson, Parker Wotherspoon · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3–1
Goaltending
29/31 saves · 2 GA · 3.1 xGA
Stopped 1.1 more goals than an average goalie would have.
15/18 saves · 3 GA · 1.6 xGA
Allowed 1.4 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
The Penguins went 0-for-1 on the power play.