TBL
2–5
TOR
Final · L
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 1-2
2–5
FinalL
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 2-1
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
09111114234
TOR
21511427536
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Lightning trail the series 1–2
TBL 1-2 · TOR 2-1 · Game 3 — the Lightning trail the series 1–2
Lightning fell to the Maple Leafs
The Lightning were outchanced (3.4 to 2.8 expected goals) and lost 2–5. An empty-net goal padded the final score; it was a one-goal game until then.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Maple Leafs created the better chances: 3.4 expected goals to 2.8, on 36 and 34 shots on goal.
TBL 2.8 xG · 34 shots
TOR 3.4 xG · 36 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.8 · 1.0
2nd
1.0 · 1.6
3rd
1.0 · 0.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Morgan Rielly · 1st 04:54 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
2
Colin Blackwell · 1st 09:44 · 0–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
3
David Kampf · 2nd 05:52 · 0–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4
Ross Colton · 2nd 11:03 · 1–3 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Ondrej Palat · 3rd 05:43 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
6
Ilya Mikheyev · 3rd 18:20 · 2–4 · wrist shot, into an empty net
7
Ilya Mikheyev · 3rd 19:55 · 2–5 · wrist shot off the rush, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 41.
TBL 41%TOR 59%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Morgan Rielly · 1st 04:54 · PP · 0–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
2
Colin Blackwell · 1st 09:44 · 0–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
3
David Kampf · 2nd 05:52 · GWG · 0–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4
Ross Colton · 2nd 11:03 · PP · 1–3
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Ondrej Palat · 3rd 05:43 · 2–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
6
Ilya Mikheyev · 3rd 18:20 · EN · 2–4
Wrist shot, into an empty net
7
Ilya Mikheyev · 3rd 19:55 · EN · 2–5
Wrist shot off the rush, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3
Unassisted · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
0–3
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
31/34 saves · 3 GA · 3.4 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
32/34 saves · 2 GA · 2.8 xGA
Stopped 0.8 more goals than an average goalie would have.
